Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
